IS THE WAR THE FUTURE?

With mounting tensions between the Democratic West and Rebellious East, war could be inevitable. A volatile leadership from Donald Trump could spark a great intercontinental war between many strong and powerful nations. What scenarios could cause such a war and who would side with who? And what would the outcome be?

One possible cause could be the unpredictable dictatorship state that is North Korea. With their forceful nuclear program that is effectively destroying their country and their recent development of an ICBM that if fired at a certain angle, could hit the West Coast of America hitting economic hubs like Los Angeles and San Francisco. The recent test also came close to a passenger airplane that was bound for Hong Kong from San Francisco. That plane undoubtedly had American citizens on board and if the missile had hit then America would have to respond. How they would is what could cause war.

The US has also flown a Strategic B-1B bomber over South Korea in an extensive warplane training exercise as recent as 6th December and this is even more frightening. These planes were armed and this order most likely came from Trump who would have wanted to show the ‘might’ of the US army. If this is the way that the US would want to react then tensions would flare up further and a small trigger could cause a full-scale war, much like what caused WW1.

Another possible scenario could be the very ambitious state that is Taiwan. With China claiming it to be their own and Taiwan refusing this, naturally, a conflict could arise quite easily. With the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the sole party that rules China, putting in their manifesto that Taiwan will be under their rule, and a plan to invade Taiwan by force in 2020, this is quite concerning. The reason behind this fixation on such a small island is because the CCP say that Chinese people are not ready to be ruled by democracy but Taiwan being successful is a constant reminder that the CCP are failing and that they need to destroy it in order to prove right. Ever since the CCP was founded during the Chinese Civil war during the mid-1900s, the CCP have wanted to eliminate democracy and Taiwan is the last hurdle. The plan consists of a 15-day bombing of key military and strategic places on the island and then a full-scale invasion of Taiwan via amphibious vehicles and aerial assault. The idea is to overwhelm the defences of the island and do it in such speed that no one can respond, except there will be a 15-day bombing which will send out alerts and China may have forgotten about US troops positioned on Taiwan, South Korea and Japan so clearly, they will need to rethink this idea.

The US is adamant about keeping Taiwan as a close ally and even though they do not recognise Taiwan independence, the Taiwan Relation Act from 1979 states that if China were to invade Taiwan, the US would respond as quickly as possible. This was seen recently at the end of September 2017 when Donald Trump agreed to the sale of $1.4 billion worth of ammunition, guns, missiles, warfare systems, torpedoes and other warfare equipment. This angered China as a result because China do not want Taiwan to become too heavily armed otherwise an invasion would threaten many more casualties than what China want.

As for who would side with who, the West i.e. US, Canada and Europe, would provide a strong fighting force with half of the ten strongest armies being from the Democratic West. In both scenarios, it is likely Japan and South Korea will side with the West because they are heavily involved with the West and are often viewed as enemies of North Korea. Most African countries would most likely not partake as many countries like Sudan are engulfed in civil war and will not have the resources, funding or technology to make a significant impact. Those that could such as Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa would likely side with the West as well because they would not want to go against the West as they know that the West has helped them significantly and opposing them would likely cause destruction as little defence against the West would be possible. Also, Commonwealth countries would have to side with the West as they are technically under the rule of the UK through the royalty, however this is a prerogative that would likely not be used and the countries would join of their own accord. South and Central American countries would likely stay out of the conflict as they would not see the point in fighting but Cuba could go against the US but this would likely have little impact.

Middle East countries and Central Asian countries are unpredictable. Those influenced by anti-US material such as Iraq, Afghanistan and possible rebel cells like ISIS would oppose the US but would have little impact against such a strong enemy that have the capacity to drop nuclear warheads on those countries. Many of these countries would be torn in two because whoever they side with, the enemy will still have nuclear bombs.

South East Asia countries could oppose the West because countries like Vietnam that still have a grudge against the US and could decide to aid the Eastern powers to fight against the US. This then leaves 3 important countries, China, North Korea, India and Russia. Three of those have nuclear warheads and North Korea are said to have nearly completed their nuclear program. All three countries border each other and could form a strong force together with Russia and China have the second and third strongest armies in the world. It would be a formidable army all with communism ideals. They would likely band together as Russia dislike the US as they see the US responsible for the fall of the USSR and the way the US look down on them. China dislike the US for the Taiwan situation and North Korea naturally hate the US due the Korean Civil War. Brazil would likely band with these countries as well.

China’s One Belt One Road scheme would throw a curve ball into the mix. The idea is to plunge countries into debt by using state-owned banks to loan money to countries participating in the scheme and Chinese workers and companies will build crucial infrastructure services in India, Indonesia, Moscow, Kenya, Germany and the Netherlands. It could persuade countries to join the Chinese side and mount a more severe attack on the West.

All in all, if countries like China, North Korea and Russia do not act nice and leaders keep acting in this reactionary behaviour, a full-scale war could happen, engulfing the globe in what could potentially, be a nuclear World War Three.