THE 91ST OSCARS

By Ryan Ratnam

The 91st Academy Awards are less than a month away, the Oscars are set to have their most confused and illogical year yet. The ceremony is currently without a host and is seemingly relying on the ‘Avengers’ in some kind of perverse marketing campaign (both Marvel and ABC, which screens the Oscars, being owned by Disney). The Academy has decided that the diminishing ratings are an effect of the four hour telecast, not their actual nominees which seems to be the obvious cause. In an effort to get to have a three hour telecast instead, they are rumoured to only perform two of the five songs nominated for Best Song, breaking Oscars tradition and are presenting the awards for Best Cinematography, Best Live Action Short, Best Film Editing and Best Hair & Makeup into the adverts, sending out the message that some awards are more important than others. Outside of the acting, screenplay and directing awards, these are conspicuously four of the five categories where a Disney film is not nominated.

However, there is a silver lining. After snubs for both ‘The Dark Knight’ and ‘Wonder Woman’, the Academy is finally recognising Superhero films as legitimate with the nomination of ‘Black Panther’ for Best Picture and six other awards. From ‘The Favourite’ to ‘Roma’, representation is at the forefront of this years’ Oscars, both films respectively garnering the most nominations (ten). It’s also a big year for Netflix, who entered the awards’ arena last year with ‘Mudbound’ but are frontrunners with ‘Roma’ and the Coen Brothers picture; ‘The Balled of Buster Scruggs’. But who will win? After tracking awards’ season, I’ve made my predictions, and as always, few I want will win.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Roma

Who Should Win: Vice

Dark Horse: Green Book/ A Star is Born

All Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star is Born, Vice

The Academy obviously adore ‘Roma’, awarding it ten nominations, notably in Best Supporting Actress for Marina de Tavira, where barely any other awards recognised her. The same happened in the 2016 Oscars, the Best Picture winner being ‘Spotlight’. The film gained much more credit than it had anywhere else, conspicuously for Rachel McAdams in Best Supporting Actress where few other awards had nominated her. The, arguably, unnecessary nominations prove Roma to be the frontrunner, just like Spotlight. It is also aided by its recent win at the BAFTAs. Bradley Cooper’s tragic snub for Best Director may see many voters try to award him and ‘A Star is Born’ with Best Picture. The same thing was seen in 2013 when Ben Affleck was snubbed from Best Director for ‘Argo’. Voters rallied around the film and it won Best Picture (rightly so).

‘Green Book’ was previously the frontrunner, winning Best Motion Picture Drama at the Golden Globes and Best Motion Picture at the Producer’s Guild. However, the film has lost a lot of steam as awards’ season has gone on, especially after Peter Farrelly, the film’s director’s history of sexual misconduct and old Islamophobic tweets from co-writer, Nick Vallelonga, were unearthed – even more disturbing given that the film’s best shot at winning an Oscar comes from Mahershala Ali, a muslim man. The film has also come under criticism for its ‘white-centric’ narrative when it comes to commenting on race. Yet, the Producer’s Guild of America do overlap with the voting for Best Picture, therefore its victory is still a possibility. And now, the other film with ten nominations – The Favourite. The Favourite was seemingly never the favourite (I’m sorry). Its ten nominations show that it has a chance, but unlike Roma, most of these nominations were easily predicted. And here we come to my pick – Vice. Vice is an extremely well-made and clever film and I would love to see it win. But sadly, I doubt it very much.

bEST DIRECTOR

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Who Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

Dark Horse: Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman

All Nominees: Alfonso Cuarón - Roma, Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite, Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman, Adam McKay - Vice, Pavel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yes, Alfonso Cuarón has already won before for ‘Gravity’. But ‘Roma’ is undeniably cinematic genius, and it is all his vision. From semi-autobiographical to 70% of the furniture on set being from his childhood, Cuarón truly put his heart and soul into Roma and deserves to win. And he will, winning everywhere, but most importantly, at the Director’s Guild Awards. However, there could be an upset from Spike Lee, the beloved film-maker finally getting his first Oscar nomination for directing. But this is Cuarón’s one to win.

Best Actor in a leading role

Who Will Win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Who Should Win: Christian Bale, Vice

Dark Horse: Christian Bale, Vice/ Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

All Nominees: Christian Bale - Vice, Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born, Willem Dafoe - At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

This one is close to call. Christian Bale was the frontrunner up until the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards (SAGs), where Rami Malek won Best Actor. The voter pools heavily overlap and the Oscars and the SAGs have proved to be most consistent in this category, choosing the same winner 18 out of 23 times. On top of his recent BAFTA win, Malek looks unstoppable. However, stranger things have happened and its still a tight race between the two. Whilst I would personally award Christian Bale, Malek is also incredibly deserving – I’m a big fan of his acting in ‘Mr Robot’. Bradley Cooper is the most likely out of the remaining three, but I don’t envisage him winning.

best actress in a leading role

Who Will Win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Who Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Dark Horse: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

All Nominees: Yalitza Aparicio - Roma, Glenn Close - The Wife, Olivia Colman - The Favourite, Lady Gaga - A Star is Born, Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Had you heard of ‘The Wife’ before awards’ season? No? Well I hadn’t either, and I don’t think anyone had. Whilst I’m not at all a fan of this choice, it’s Glenn Close’s year – she has won everything, and this being her seventh Oscar nomination, I don’t see the Academy diverting from that trend. However, Olivia Colman truly gave a career best performance in ‘The Favourite’, able to outshine her competitive co-stars; Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz. Yet, she won’t win – at least she got (another) Golden Globe out of it though. And the dark horse, Lady Gaga. Everyone went into this year’s awards’ season thinking that it was her year. But despite her incredible performance, a win in this category for her is unlikely. She’ll almost certainly get a consolation prize in the form of a Best Song Oscar however.

best actor in a supporting role

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Dark Horse: Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

All Nominees: Mahershala Ali - Green Book, Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliot - A Star is Born, Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Sam Rockwell - Vice

Much like Glenn Close, Mahershala Ali has swept every other award this year and the only thing that could hold him back is the fact that he won in 2017, in the same category for ‘Moonlight’. The Academy doesn’t like awarding the same person in quick succession. But it’s happened before; Tom Hanks won Best Actor two years in a row for ‘Philadelphia’ and ‘Forrest Gump’ in 1993 and 1994 respectively. However, Richard E. Grant could pull off an upset. Well-liked and the original frontrunner, he stands a good chance. Who should’ve won but wasn’t even nominated? Timothée Chalamet for his harrowing performance of a drug addict in ‘Beautiful Boy’. Apparently, his film and ‘Boy Erased’ (two completely different films) almost became one for the Academy and therefore did not nominate either – a perfect representation of the Academy’s mind-bending logic.

Best Actress In a supporting role

Who Will Win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Who Should Win: Amy Adams, Vice

Dark Horse: Amy Adams, Vice

All Nominees: Amy Adams - Vice, Marina de Tavira - Roma, Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk, Emma Stone - The Favourite, Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Regina King was supposed to be this year’s Viola Davis, and she has been, accept for her significant snub to even be nominated for the SAGs and the BAFTAs. However, I still think she will win, given that Emily Blunt won the Best Supporting Actress SAG for ‘A Quiet Place’, yet she was robbed of an Oscar nomination. Frankly, it’s criminal. Amy Adams gave an extremely understated and nuanced performance in ‘Vice’ and it’s her sixth nomination – just give her the award already. And perhaps on the night, that might be the criteria on which the Academy votes. On a side note, Emma Stone gave her, in my opinion, career best performance in ‘The Favourite’ playing the seemingly innocent, yet unhinged and scheming Abigail fantastically, but the gold should still go to Adams’ haunting performance.

Best original screenplay

Who Will Win: The Favourite

Who Should Win: Vice

Dark Horse: Green Book/Roma

All Nominees: The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, Vice

‘Green Book’ is the current frontrunner, but I’m predicting ‘The Favourite’ being awarded, especially if Mahershala Ali wins – the Academy like to be quite democratic in how they hand out trophies. However, I’m in ‘Vice’s corner – the screenplay masterfully treading the line between comedic and terrifying. ‘Roma’ do not deserve to win given the significant lack of dialogue and really the fact that little actually happened in the film, but its win is conceivable.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who Will Win: BlacKKKlansman

Who Should Win: A Star is Born

Dark Horse: If Beale Street Could Talk/ A Star is Born

All Nominees: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

I’d say it’s a tight race between ‘BlacKKKlansman’ and ‘A Star is Born’, but the former currently has the edge, given that it’s not likely to win in any other categories. The latter, however, deserves to win, given that Bradley Cooper was able to make a story which had been made into a film three times prior fresh and modern. Don’t be surprised to see ‘If Beale Street Could Talk’ take the gold however, even ‘Can You Ever Forgive Me?’ has a chance. It’s anyone’s game.

best animated feature

Who Will Win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Who Should Win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Dark Horse: The Incredibles 2

All Nominees: The Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Spiderman: Into The Spiderverse

‘Spiderverse’ has swept the awards and it would be criminal to be lazy and award the latest Pixar film. I personally liked ‘The Incredibles 2’. But it was too safe. Meanwhile, ‘Spiderverse’ pushed the boundaries of both what a superhero and an animated film can be and had some very impressive technology on display.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Best Animated Short:

Who Will Win: Bao

Who Should Win: Bao

Dark Horse: Weekends

All Nominees: Animal Behaviour, Bao, Late Afternoon, One Small Step, Weekends

Yes, this is the weird dumpling short that played before ‘The Incredibles 2’. Whilst I too was confused, when I finally figured out its commentary on depression and growing up, it gave a fresh narrative focussing on a mother, feeling that she’s been left behind. Sadly, for the other nominees, there’s no competition here.

best foreign language film

Who Will Win: Cold War (Poland)/ Roma (Mexico)

Who Should Win: Cold War/ Roma

Dark Horse: Shoplifters (Japan)

All Nominees: Capernaum (Lebanon), Cold War (Poland), Never Look Away (Germany), Roma (Mexico), Shoplifters (Japan)

Surely this award should be a shoo-in for ‘Roma’. Well, not exactly. The Academy also obviously loves ‘Cold War’, nominating its director, Pawel Pawlikowski, over Bradley Cooper for Best Director. The situation I predict is that ‘Cold War’ will win if ‘Roma’ gets Best Picture and if it doesn’t ‘Roma’ will take this award. Or I could be completely wrong and ‘Roma’ will get both. Don’t count out the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, ‘Shoplifters’ however. The Japanese film is extremely well-regarded and its win would be Japan’s second win.

best cinematography

Who Will Win: Roma

Who Should Win: Roma

Dark Horse: The Favourite

All Nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star Is Born

‘The Favourite’ definitely has some buzz regarding cinematography, and whilst it was quite good, it wasn’t as inventive as and didn’t add to the film as much as previous winners ‘Blade Runner 2049’ and ‘La La Land’ did. However, ‘Roma’ certainly does, creating a certain ambiance that allows viewers to focus on emotional and internal turmoil in a film where, one could argue, little happens.

Best costume design

Who Will Win: Black Panther

Who Should Win: Black Panther

Dark Horse: The Favourite

All Nominees: The Ballad Of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen Of Scots

Once again, the costume design in ‘The Favourite’ was great, the dresses really did add to the absurdity, their intricacy and regal-ness contrasting with the chaos which ensued. However, ‘Black Panther’ aptly presented African culture, in a way that combined it with modern day styles. I’m not sure that the film will win any other awards on the night, therefore this might be where The Academy chooses to recognise them. Also, Danai Gurira’s red dress and the breath-taking way it was used in the Casino sequence alone deserves this award.

Best film Editing

Who Will Win: Vice

Who Should Win: Vice

Dark Horse: Bohemian Rhapsody/ The Favourite

All Nominees: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Vice

The film editing in ‘Vice’ is what allows the humour and the drama to succeed, making the film so profound. It also looked like an incredibly difficult job, yet still pulled off to perfection. It faces competition from both ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ and, once again, ‘The Favourite’, which were also very good. But please, give this one to the wonderfully absurd political commentary that was ‘Vice’.

best makeup & hairstyling

Who Will Win: Vice

Who Should Win: Vice

Dark Horse: Border

All Nominees: Border, Mary Queen Of Scots, Vice

How the artists here were able to make a former Batman into Dick Cheney still baffles me. The makeup used on all the actors to make them realistically age was also very skilful and extremely convincing.

Best production design

Who Will Win: The Favourite

Who Should Win: Black Panther

Dark Horse: Black Panther/ Roma

All Nominees: Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

‘The Favourite’s Production Design was admittedly very clever, especially the hidden passages between Queen Anne and Lady Marlborough’s rooms. Yet once again, ‘Black Panther’ deserves the award as it blended authentic African culture with modern and even futuristic technology. ‘Roma’ could cause as upset given the sentimentality that went into creating the set, Cuarón using his own furniture from his childhood.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Who Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Who Should Win: Black Panther

Dark Horse: Black Panther/ If Beale Street Could Talk

All Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

Given 'First Man's snub, this is also a tight race. Whilst it will seemingly go to 'BlacKkKlansman', there is also a lot of buzz behind 'If Beale Street Could Talk's score. I would personally give it to 'Black Panther', able to inventively mix traditional African music with modern pop culture and rap music was a hard feat that the film pulled off.

best original song

Who Will Win: Shallow, A Star Is Born

Who Should Win: Shallow, A Star Is Born

Dark Horse: None

All Nominees: All The Stars – Black Panther, I’ll Fight – RBG, The Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary Poppins Returns, Shallow – A Star Is Born, When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

‘Shallow’ from ‘A Star is Born’ will win and Lady Gaga will get her Oscar at least in this category. ‘Shallow’ is both an incredibly moving and raw song, but has also had the success of being commercially popular and successful. It’s recent wins at the Golden Globes, The Grammies and virtually every other awards show prove it to be the only frontrunner. Last year, ‘This Is Me’ from ‘The Greatest Showman’ was robbed of its gold in a shock upset by ‘Coco’s ‘Remember Me’ but this likely being the only Oscar ‘A Star Is Born’ is awarded, a repeat upset is very unlikely.

best sound editing

Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Who Should Win: A Quiet Place

Dark Horse: First Man/ A Quiet Place

All Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma

Both Sound categories are notoriously difficult to predict, but the current frontrunner seems to be ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’. After not only being snubbed for Best Picture, but only getting one nomination, ‘A Quiet Place’ definitely deserves to win. It was a film based on sound and masterfully crafted the story and the acting all around this one sense, in editing that truly captured the terror that ensued.

best sound mixing

Who Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Who Should Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Dark Horse: A Star is Born

All Nominees: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born

I’m not going to act like I’m a good judge of Sound Mixing as I’m not really sure what constitutes it being Oscar-worthy, but both Sound categories often award the same film.

best visual effects

Who Will Win: First Man

Who Should Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Dark Horse: Avengers: Infinity War

All Nominees: Avengers: Infinity War, Christopher Robin, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story

Thanks to the likely Disney orchestrated snub of ‘Aquaman’ this category is much weaker than usual (and yes, I’m talking about ‘Christopher Robin’ and ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’). All signs point to ‘First Man’ taking the gold, but I would personally give it to ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ for the amazing CGI work on Thanos. It allowed them to give Josh Brolin’s facial features to effectively a massive purple thumb and therefore treat him as a serious character.

best documentary feature

Who Will Win: Free Solo

Who Should Win: RBG

Dark Horse: RBG

All Nominees: Of Fathers and Sons, Free Solo, Hale Country, Minding the Gap, RBG

Given the criminal snub of the pre-nomination frontrunner, ‘Won’t You Be My Neighbour?’, this award is much harder to predict. ‘Free Solo’ is garnering acclaim for how it blends passion yet also endurance but ‘RBG’ was able to win attention over its motion picture counterpart ‘On The Basis of Sex’ despite being released in the same year.

best documentary short

Who Will Win: Period. End of Sentence.

Dark Horse: Black Sheep

All Nominees: Black Sheep, End Game, Lifeboat, A Night at the Garden, Period. End of Sentence

best live-action short

Who Will Win: Marguerite

Dark Horse: Skin

All Nominees: Detainment, Fauve, Marguerite, Mother, Skin

Anything but ‘Detainment’.

If I’m correct, here are the amount of Oscars for each winning film:

Roma: 3-4

Bohemian Rhapsody: 3

BlacKkKlansman: 2

The Favourite: 2

Vice: 2

Bao: 1

Black Panther: 1

Cold War: 0-1

First Man: 1

Free Solo: 1

Green Book: 1

If Beale Street Could Talk: 1

Marguerite: 1

Period: End Of Sentence: 1

Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

A Star Is Born: 1

The Wife: 1

Here’s the same, but for what I think should win:

Vice: 6

Roma: 2-3

Black Panther: 3

A Star Is Born: 2

Avengers: Infinity War: 1

Bao: 1

Bohemian Rhapsody: 1

Can You Ever Forgive Me?: 1

Cold War: 0-1

The Favourite: 1

Marguerite: 1

Period: End of Sentence: 1

A Quiet Place: 1

RBG: 1

Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse: 1

I’m hoping that the academy even awards as many films as I’ve predicted. However, by next year, I hope the Oscars and their puppet master Disney have learnt that this should be a celebration of film, not a commercial venture.